Generally I do not work Sundays and never really get the chance of getting into the findings of my favourite pollster, Opinium, which comes out every other weekend in the Observer. It has by far the best and comprehensive datasets of any pollster and has been running regular approval ratings longer than any other firm and its surveys always carry a range of leadership questions.

The fieldwork for today’s poll took place after Wednesday’s seven hour appearance by Johnson’s former top advisor, Dom Cummings, before a Commons Committee which has been getting a lot of coverage.

As predicted the PM has taken hits on a number of measures with Opinium:

• His lead over Starmer as “best PM” DOWN 17 to 6%
• His net approval rating DOWN from plus six to minus six
• His net likeability DOWN from 12 to zero
• His net strong leader rating DOWN from plus 4 to minus 11
• His competence ratings DOWN from zero to minus 12

All of this is compared with the previous survey from the firm two weeks ago.

The Tories still have a lead on voting intention but that’s slipped from plus 13% two weeks ago to 6%. Also 71% of the public still approve of the government’s handling of the supply and provision of the vaccine, compared to just 9% who disapprove.

Over the next month we see two big electoral tests with the Batley and Spen by-election on July 1st and two weeks earlier Chesham and Amersham. In the latter postal voting has just started. My reading is that a change in perceptions about Boris won’t lead to much party switching but could undermine Tory turnout.

I’m on the LDs in Chesham and Amersham at 19/1 which I regard as a value bet. As I always say bets are not predictions but assessments of value.

Mike Smithson