As yet I’m not convinced – but things could change

Inevitably after the extraordinary manner in which Boris conducted himself at PMQs today there’s been an increase in speculation over when he will actually step aside. The betting on both the Smarkets (above) and Betfair exchanges rate this currently as a 25% chance.

He could decide of his own accord that he’s had enough but I doubt it. What generally ends it for a Tory leader is MPs thinking that with the current one still in place then they could lose their seats. That is far from the case here.

A big issue will be at the end of next week when the local/mayoral and by-election results start coming in and we’ll see the first real results based on real votes since GE2019.

My view is that the electoral concern for the Tories is if things like the “cash for curtains” row lead to smaller blue turnouts in key races. The Tories might just find it harder to get their vote out.

There is a week still to go though perhaps half of the eventual votes are already in the post.