In 2016, poor health strongly predicted Trump voting. A county's rate of diabetes, alcohol consumption, obesity, etc. predicted its propensity to vote Trump *even better* than race/education. https://t.co/ew0d9lUxfr pic.twitter.com/6sHUf2EyYj

— David Frum (@davidfrum) April 21, 2021

Correlation does equal causation?

I’m fascinated by this analysis, perhaps American pollsters should change their weightings and ditch weighting polls by age and educational attainment and use things like (poor) health condition and alcohol use.

With the structure of the American health system poorer people cannot get the heath coverage and assistance they need perhaps this is why the GOP tried to gut and sabotage the Affordable Care Act? It was an attempt to beget more GOP voters.

This is something we need to factor in with the aftermath of the pandemic, just because you don’t die from Covid-19 doesn’t mean your health isn’t impacted long term.

I’d like to see some British pollsters to do something similar here and see if there’s a similar correlation here.

TSE

PS – You should read the entirety of the Twitter thread from David Frum, it is illuminating