Currently he’s a 4% betting chance while she’s a 35% one

There seems to be a widespread assumption in the betting that should Joe Biden not be running for the 2024 nomination then Kamala Harris will almost automatically be the chosen one.

This is reflected in the betting odds where I believe Buttigieg is under priced and Harris is overpriced.

A big reason, I would suggest, is that Buttigieg’s role as US Transportation Secretary is going to give him significantly more media coverage than the Vice President. After combating COVID the main objective of the Biden administration is rebuilding America’s infrastructure and here Mayor Pete is already outdoing Harris in terms of coverage.

Another factor, I would argue, is that Buttigieg is a far better campaigner. Last year he won the Iowa caucuses but failed to get much benefit because of a huge cock-up in the counting process which delayed the results being published considerably reducing their impact.

Contrast that with Harris who pulled out of the race even before Iowa because of her lacklustre performance up to that point.

Of course in this market everything depends on 78 year old Joe Biden. Will he go for another term when he would be 83? At the moment he says he is and while that remains he should be favourite.