Latest Senedd voting intention (16-19 Mar)

Lab – 32% (constituency vote) / 31% (regional/party vote)
Con – 30%/28%
Plaid Cymru – 23%/22%
Lib Dem – 5%/4%
Abolish – 3%/7%
Reform UK – 3%/1%https://t.co/QkWuB7oO4D pic.twitter.com/tHWLNzq0Fz

— YouGov (@YouGov) March 25, 2021

To put these numbers into context at the constituency vote for 2016 Welsh election the vote split was: LAB 34.7% CON 21.2% PC 20.5% LD 7.7% UKIP 12.5%

So the Tories are getting very close to Labour helped enormously by UKIP’s successor party, Reform, only being on 3%. Also we have the “Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party polling 7% on the regional list.

Could it be possible that the Welsh Tories could pull off a surprise here?