Two of the last five polls have the lead down at 2%

Having hit the extraordinary polling margin on 13% at the start of the month the latest polls in the Wikipedia table the most recent published surveys have gaps nowhere nearly as large. In fact as can be seen two of the latest five surveys have it at just 2%.

Maybe the novelty of the what should be regarded as a very successful vaccination programme is starting to wear off and the bigger Tory leads are becoming harder to sustain. And it is not just the voting numbers.

The Independent/BMG poll found that 41% of those sampled said they did not trust the PM “to do the right thing” , compared to 38% who said they did trust him.

It is worth pointing out that on a universal swing a 2% CON would lose quite a few seats which could cost the party its majority. At GE2019 the Tories had a GB vote lead of 11.8%.

Hopefully the May 6th locals will give us a clearer picture.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.