With 29 days to go he’s still trying to hang on

The political story that most dominates my thinking at the moment is what is going on in the US and whether Trump will actually leave the White House quietly as the US constitution requires at noon Washington time on January 20th.

There is little doubt that Trump is desperate to hang on in there and could try to mount very dangerous methods constitutionally in which to ensure that he isn’t replaced by Joe Biden after inauguration day.

This is not just about his massive ego but also the very real possibility that he could face criminal actions once he is no longer the President. The investigation into alleged tax fraud in New York is ongoing and potentially could be very dangerous for him.

Since the election on November 3rd he has tried a whole series of strategies in order to continue and the latest that is being talked about is of Trump declaring martial law under which he would ensure that the elections are rerun in the States which Biden flipped. How the US military would respond to that is hard to see but it is being stated that the oath soldiers take is to the “Constitution” not the President.

Even Bob Barr the outgoing attorney general who was seen by many to be a very close to Trump has found what’s proposed hard to stomach. He’s going at Christmas rather than waiting for inauguration day and we don’t know whether he was sacked or not.

Smarkets have a market on Trump till being there after January 20th. My guess is that he won’t but it will be a pretty rough ride

Mike Smithson