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It might seem an eternity ago but in the first polls in April this year after Starmer became LAB leader two pollsters had CON leads of 26%. Since then things have fallen back sharply for the governing party and in its last survey at the end of August Opinium, had LAB and CON level pegging on 40% each.

Tonight we are due the latest Opinium poll and I just wonder whether this will be the moment that LAB edges into the lead. Certainly other indicators have been less good of late for Johnson’s party. He himself with YouGov has lost his lead as “best PM”. That last Opinium poll had Starmer with a net 22% lead over Johnson in its approval ratings.

This past week has not been one of the easiest for the government following the Cummings/Johnson move to flouts international law and the Tory GE2019 manifesto by seeking to avoid a treaty obligation. That issue, however, is complicated to explain and might not have purchase in polling terms.

Anyway we should start to get data from about 8pm.

Mike Smithson