On Betfair she’s moved from a 35% chance to a 57% one

On Betfair the betting on who Joe Biden will choose as his VP has been totally shaken up overnight following a photographer snapping a note seen in his hands in which Harris, the longtime favourite, is at the top and rated highly.

The development followed last night’s news that the presumptive Democratic party nominee will announce who will be on the ticket with him during the first week of August.

While I think that Harris is in with a very strong chance and should be the betting favourite I’m not totally convinced of this move. It all looked a bit contrived. I just wonder whether in putting himself in a position where this could be photographed he is trying to get a message to Harris that she is being seriously considered.

This happened after a report on Politico that a leading member of Biden’s VP selection team has been making very critical comments about Harris. Maybe the note is just an attempt to appease the Senator from California

We also do not know whether there are similar notes for others who are regarded as leading contenders.

This is a critical choice for the 77 year old as we move to the (virtual) convention season and the effective start of the campaign. For Team Trump are desperately wanting to move the narrative off their man’s handling of the pandemic and will launch ferocious attacks on whoever Biden chooses.

I rate the chances of Harris getting it at 50% but not more.

Mike Smithson