Browsed by
Month: June 2020

Scoping the damage of the Cummings road trip and Johnson’s decision to ignore it

Scoping the damage of the Cummings road trip and Johnson’s decision to ignore it

Comments 0 Comment

Johnson leader ratings We all know that on Friday May 22nd the Guardian and the Mirror first broke the story of the trip to Durham by Cummings and his family just before the Easter Weekend. Over the following few days it was just about the biggest thing dominating the UK media and everybody it seemed had an opinion. The question is how has this hurt the Tories and Johnson. The above tables show the voting intention and leader ratings from…

Read More Read More

It appears Sir Keir Starmer has made a great first impression

It appears Sir Keir Starmer has made a great first impression

Comments 0 Comment

One of the things I like about the Ipsos MORI ratings is that they go back so far so you can make decent comparisons, their leader ratings have been an outstandingly accurate barometer on who will win the next general election, they have been a better barometer than voting intention polls. I thought it would be interesting to see how Sir Keir Starmer’s ratings two months into the job looked, and he’s the best performing Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal…

Read More Read More

London Calling. The clash over the Tory candidate in London

London Calling. The clash over the Tory candidate in London

Comments 0 Comment

I’ve always found Shaun Bailey underwhelming and this report in The FT earlier on this week came as no surprise. The Conservative party’s candidate for next year’s delayed London mayoral election has lost the support of senior party officials and donors, with some keen to see him replaced by a prominent name such as former chancellor Sajid Javid. Shaun Bailey, a former youth worker and one of the party’s leading black figures, was selected to take on Labour mayor Sadiq…

Read More Read More

Weighing up the Biden VP pick betting

Weighing up the Biden VP pick betting

Comments 0 Comment

A guest slot by Mr Ed There has been article overnight that appears to be well-informed with those close to the matter that Biden’s choice for VP candidate has narrowed down to six candidates. Elizabeth Warren, Susan Rice and Kamala Harris are specifically mentioned, while the comments suggest that the other three advisors have looked closely at Val Demings, Keisha Lance Bottoms and Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Governor of New Mexico.  I think in these situations, one useful route to…

Read More Read More

Submission or No Deal: where do the Brexit talks end up this year?

Submission or No Deal: where do the Brexit talks end up this year?

Comments 0 Comment

It’s hard to see how there can be a bespoke agreement by December If it was going to happen, it would have done so months ago. Confirmation yesterday that Britain would not exercise its right to request an extension to the Brexit transition period was one of the more predictable events of 2020. Despite the ravages wreaked on the UK economy by the Covid-19 pandemic and the shutdown it necessitated, the danger of a No-FTA exit creating yet more barriers…

Read More Read More

The first phone poll since March has CON 5% ahead but Starmer with a net 32% lead on leader satisfaction

The first phone poll since March has CON 5% ahead but Starmer with a net 32% lead on leader satisfaction

Comments 0 Comment

Starmer’s numbers are the best for an opposition leader since Blair Today we heard something of a pulling rarity – a phone survey from Ipsos Mori – the first since March well before starmer became Labour leader. The firm is the only one still doing national phone political surveys which cost a huge amount more than online polling. One of the things I love about them is that it has been going for so long and maintains records going back…

Read More Read More