And so to South Carolina where anything other than a big Biden win would be a sensation
His Obama link seems to be working well.
Just about ever since Betfair opened its South Carolina betting market former vice-president, 77 year old Joe Biden, has been the favourite. There was a moment a weak or so ago when when everything seems to be going on Bernie’s way and he had a day as favourite. Since then things have changed and now Biden is a 93%+chance.
The thing to remember about the state is that the majority of Democratic party voters are African Americans and this is a group which Joe Biden has been counting on throughout. He was the one who was appointed Vice President by the first African-American president, Barack Obama and that has been a key part of his appeal. This is from the CNN Exit poll:
- 55% black
- 40% moderate
- 20% very liberal
- 9%conservative (!)
The polls have Sanders in second place but not that far ahead of other contenders and it might be that the surprise overnight could be for the lower places. A smart move by Biden has been to indicate that his VP choice if he got the nomination was Kamala Harris – the black senator from California and former contender,
What a Biden victory should do is allow him to go into Super Tuesday in 3 days time with a clear victory under his belt.
The other thing we could get overnight is the official certified Iowa outcome with Buttigieg having the narrowest of margins over Sanders.