Apart from Biden’s terrible performance and Elizabeth Warren only getting 9.7% of the vote the big surprise of last week’s New Hampshire primary was Amy Klobuchar’s strong third place which was well ahead of what the polls were showing. Her 19.8% vote share was well ahead of the 11.7% that she had in the RCP polling average of final polls for the state. That is some difference.

I’ve long been watching Klobuchar’s progress closely after putting £8 on her at a walloping 760/1 on Betfair for the presidency last November. At the time I saw this as a good trading bet and did, indeed, lay part of it at a big profit. But based on where we currently are I’m sticking with my position.

The news is that in the few days since New Hampshire Klobuchar has raised $12m+ which is greater than her entire fundraising haul in the final quarter of 2019. She’s now seen as a much more serious contender and I think she might do well in Nevada on Saturday. Fundraising is generally seen as a good metric.

She’s also got a big endorsement this morning from one of the biggest papers in Texas where the primary takes place on March 3rd.

Although she yet to turn 60 she’s two decades younger than Bernie Sanders, Jo Biden and Mike Bloomberg and 20 years older than Mayor Pete. I’m still far from convinced that the party will choose someone in their late 70s.

Be warned. If my bet comes good you’ll never stop hearing about it!

Mike Smithson