It’s third time unlucky for the ex-VP in Iowa

Biden’s career in politics has been defined by his runs for the presidency which have seen him flop at the first fence in Iowa. In 1988 his bid came to an end in the state following him being ridiculed for plagiarising a Neil Kinnock election PPB in order to make a speech about himself. Two decades later in 2008 he pulled out of the race after failing to get a delegate in the Iowa caucuses and now he’s had another failure in the first state to decide.

The real problem going forward is money. Donors like to back those they see have a viable route to victory and after trailing his polling numbers by some margin in Iowa the same might happen in the following states. He key plus point of being electable got smashed on Monday night.

With attention turning to the next state in line I’ve cashed out of my Iowa Buttigieg winnings and put it all on the ex-Mayor at 4.8 on Betfair to win New Hampshire, My read is that he’s nicely positioned to pick up centrist votes that might have gone to Biden or Klobuchar. While Sanders is still favourite Buttigieg is in a better position than the current odds suggest.

Another factor is that Bernie might struggle to attract some of the progressive vote that has until now been committed to Warren. The latter, of course, is Senator for the neighbouring state of Massachusetts.

An issue that I have raised before is that Sanders is not a Democrat and many blame him and his supporters for not getting fully behind the nominee at WH2016 thus helping Trump achieve his victory.

Mike Smithson