The first voting in WH2020 starts tonight

The latest weather for Des Moines has it down going down to minus 6 tonight which could be a big disincentive to those Democratic supporters who were considering taking part in the caucuses. In past elections something like 16% of Iowans have participated which makes this a massive test for the pollsters. Will those who said they’d participate in these events which can lat two hours actually do so.

The biggest mover in the latest polling published today is Pete Buttigieg though he still trails behind Biden and Sanders.

The previous threads sets out how the count will work tonight and the different sets of numbers that we will see. Those like me who bet with Betfair will be looking at the number of delegates won by the contenders across the state not vote totals.

Have a good night – this is the biggest political betting event since GE2019

Mike Smithson