Browsed by
Month: December 2019

Boris would be making a big mistake denying Bercow a peerage

Boris would be making a big mistake denying Bercow a peerage

Comments 0 Comment

New Speaker Lindsay Hoyle is surely right when he says says Johnson should not deny Bercow a peerage. It would be seen as mean and vindictive. #.https://t.co/iFaPJQ9uJo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 24, 2019 Real Conservatives don’t ignore precedents going back centuries Very interesting that new Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle has felt the need to speak out over whether his predecessor should be give a peerage – as has been the case with Speakers over the centuries. If this, indeed, is…

Read More Read More

When I Grow Up I Wanna Be Famous

When I Grow Up I Wanna Be Famous

Comments 0 Comment

When Boris Johnson’s autobiography eventually (inevitably) comes out it will be one of the most fascinating political books of its time. Some of it might even be true. It will probably write about the 2019 election as being as much the Boris election as the Brexit election, a perspective that wouldn’t be entirely driven by pure egomania. Governing parties usually just sink over time. Rebounding upwards after almost a decade in office is rare. But was it born of skill,…

Read More Read More

On a holiday note linking the location of football clubs to what happened at GE2019 & the referendum

On a holiday note linking the location of football clubs to what happened at GE2019 & the referendum

Comments 0 Comment

Prospect CON & Leave areas more likely to be lower down The above table has been prepared by academics Phil Cowley and Matthew Bailey and appears under the grand title “How football grounds explain the election result” in Prospect Magazine. As they observe: “ Premier League clubs are mostly in big cities, and big cities largely return Labour MPs and voted Remain. As you move down the leagues, you get smaller cities and towns, which are more likely to be…

Read More Read More

How a CON majority moved from a 31% chance to victory – the GE2019 betting timeline

How a CON majority moved from a 31% chance to victory – the GE2019 betting timeline

Comments 0 Comment

Before we move on from looking at GE19 I thought it might be useful, as with previous big political events like the referendum, to put up the betting chart. As can be seen shortly after Johnson became CON leader and PM Betfair punters rated the chances of the Tories securing an overall majority at just a 31% chance. As the betdata.io chart of the biggest Betfair GE2019 market shows that rose rose rose till 10pm on December 12th when the…

Read More Read More

BMG finds just 2% of voters back Long-Bailey for LAB leader with 61% saying they haven’t heard of her’

BMG finds just 2% of voters back Long-Bailey for LAB leader with 61% saying they haven’t heard of her’

Comments 0 Comment

And there’s little support for Corbyn’s claim to have “won the argument” The main poll this weekend is by BMG for the Independent which looks at both the policy profile that would command support and views of possible replacements for two-time loser, Corbyn who led his party to its worst general election since 1935. This, of course, is a general poll which is representative of the electorate as a whole and not Labour’s seleorate which will decide who the new…

Read More Read More

A Punters History of the Labour Contest. From Callaghan to Corbyn

A Punters History of the Labour Contest. From Callaghan to Corbyn

Comments 0 Comment

As I wrote in the run-up to the general election, political betting markets can be lucrative ones for punters. One of the so-called ‘iron laws’ of Conservative leadership contests is that the front runner does not win it. In 2019, Boris Johnson finally put the myth to bed. Labour on the other hand have a different past, much more content to back the front runner and at time they have proved to be coronations rather than contests. 2019 has the…

Read More Read More

Brexit’s Hotel California

Brexit’s Hotel California

Comments 0 Comment

This time next year, we’ll be in a very familiar place They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. Originally was said of the Bourbon monarchy after its restoration, it’s equally true of the EU Commission today which seems intent on repeating all its own mistakes for lack of comprehension that they are, in fact, mistakes. Perhaps this might be because one of the easiest ways to turn a blind eye to existential threats is to convince yourself that the reasons…

Read More Read More

The Mandate

The Mandate

Comments 0 Comment

The Conservatives are triumphant. Labour have been smashed, the Lib Dems have actually regressed. The Tories may not have managed a landslide in the technical sense of getting a majority of 100, but they weren’t far away and their lead of 160 over the second-placed party is very handy indeed. They will be as dominant in Parliament as the Conservatives were in the 1987 Parliament or the Labour party was after the 2005 election. The Conservatives will take this as…

Read More Read More