Once again political gamblers have been overstating the chances of an early general election
Chart via the betdata.io
The favourite month has gone from September to October to November to December and now 2020
For decades or as long as I have been political betting one of the characteristics of political gamblers is that they overstate the chances of an early General Election being called. Somehow it is always easier to make the case in your own head that one is going to happen soon than that it probably won’t.
So over the past few weeks like other PBers I have been laying, betting against the current favourite month in 2019 and hopefully will make a nice profit.
A key factor to remember now is that under a statute that was enacted in 2013 the minimum campaign period for a general electio was laid as down 25 working days. Clearly from the betting quite a lot of punters are not fully aware of the implications of this.
On top of that it is useful to have at the back of your mind the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliament Act for how an election is called as a result of a vote of no confidence in the government. Once that has been decided there is a period of 14 days for it shall come into operation.
When the act first came into being and certainly for the years that followed the general view has been that this made no difference to the prime minister’s ability to call an election. Even though two-thirds of all MPs have to vote for one the view has always been, until this month, that the opposition leader would have to fall in line.
That, of course, is what Corbyn didn’t do two weeks ago and it is arguable that he is the one who will determine the election date rather than Mr Johnson.
Mike Smithson