This should scare the sh*t out of Number 10 https://t.co/1buBaBDotI

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) September 12, 2019

Consider how deep into Labour territory Johnson may have to dig to offset losses in Scotland, London & southern Remainia. Some big shifts likely required among Lab voters who culturally agree w/ Cons on Brexit but economicallyare v v sceptical about whether Cons "on their side"

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) September 12, 2019

Looking through the information released so far it shows that for Boris Johnson to win over Labour voting Leavers will rival the twelve labours of Hercules.

Whilst they may voted Leave that’s all they may have in common. Will the Old Etonian Prime Minister and say fellow Old Etonian Jacob Rees-Mogg, the millionaire Investment Management firm owner, to be the right type of people to win over Labour’s Leave voters that they are on their side?

In the early part of 2017 in the opinion polls Theresa May was winning over Labour supporters in much larger number Boris Johnson is today so when the reality of voting for the Tories presents itself those Labour voters didn’t.

Paula Surridge writes

The Conservatives are unlikely to lose voters to the Labour party in any great number, in the same way they are unlikely to win any over. The 2017 election was already polarised along this split.

Given the concentration of the 2017 vote among strong leave identifiers a more potent threat to the Conservative vote is likely to come in the shape of the Brexit Party. In total over half of the ‘very strong leave’ group give their likelihood of voting for the Brexit Party as 6/10 or higher.

Given this also represents almost half of the total 2017 Conservative vote it leaves open the possibility of up to a quarter of 2017 Conservative voters moving to the Brexit Party (polling immediately after the EU Parliament election detected this). Initial polling suggested the change of leadership in the Conservative party could be enough to stem this flow but the danger remains present should the government (be seen as) failing to deliver on its Brexit commitment.

Given the concentration of the 2017 vote among strong leave identifiers a more potent threat to the Conservative vote is likely to come in the shape of the Brexit Party. In total over half of the ‘very strong leave’ group give their likelihood of voting for the Brexit Party as 6/10 or higher. Given this also represents almost half of the total 2017 Conservative vote it leaves open the possibility of up to a quarter of 2017 Conservative voters moving to the Brexit Party (polling immediately after the EU Parliament election detected this). Initial polling suggested the change of leadership in the Conservative party could be enough to stem this flow but the danger remains present should the government (be seen as) failing to deliver on its Brexit commitment.

If Boris Johnson’s strategy does work he will deserve his victory but many of us have huge doubts about it.

TSE