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Month: August 2019

Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

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Graphic – Recent YouGov polling on impeaching Trump Impeachment is a legal procedure, with an indictment delivered by the House and a trial conducted by the Senate. But, assuming that there is a plausible yet arguable case for it, the procedure naturally resolves itself into a political process like any other. To recap, impeachment is defined as the House passing one or more articles of impeachment, by a simple majority vote. The House has 435 voting members, of which 235 are…

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Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

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In all the reactions to the Times front page about the possibility of Johnson staying on as PM even if Parliament passes a VoNC in him and prefers someone else who can command the House, two absences were notable: (1) no immediate denial by No 10; and (2) no outrage by the official Opposition at the prospect of what would seem to be an appalling breach of normally understood conventions, moreover ones which would normally benefit the opposition. After all,…

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Senator Elizabeth Warren becomes the fourth Democrat to occupy the WH2020 nomination favourite slot

Senator Elizabeth Warren becomes the fourth Democrat to occupy the WH2020 nomination favourite slot

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Since the Democratic WH2020 nomination betting opened there have now been four different contenders who have occupied the betting favourite slot on the Betfair exchange. First it was Senator Bernie Sanders, the 77 year old from Vermont, then ex-VP Jo Biden, 76,  who has had two stints there.  After her impressive performance in the first debate Senator Kamala Harris took over only to see her betting position decline sharply after a lacklustre second debate appearance last week The latest favourite…

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Another set of PM Johnson leader ratings has him in deep negative territory

Another set of PM Johnson leader ratings has him in deep negative territory

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Generally when PMs are replaced during a parliament the new person gets a boost in their leader ratings which I have long regarded as a better indicator of the political weather than voting intention polls. With BJohnson, only two weeks now into the job, things have been very different. Opinium had him on a net minus 3% in its approval ratings. Ipsos-MORI which asks how satisfied people are the mew CON leader and PM came out with minus 7%. Now,…

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The Conservative Party is pursuing profoundly un-conservative policies. So I’ve left it.

The Conservative Party is pursuing profoundly un-conservative policies. So I’ve left it.

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Ideology with no concern for consequences or convention is the business of revolutionaries I have today resigned my membership of the Conservative Party after 24 years. While that’s a moment of some sadness for me, it’s of trivial importance on any wider scale. What isn’t trivially important is the set of changes which the Party’s undergone in the last few years and especially the last few weeks because these will have an immense impact on the country, one way or…

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All could change in the WH2020 nomination race on the evening of February 3rd in the midwest state of Iowa

All could change in the WH2020 nomination race on the evening of February 3rd in the midwest state of Iowa

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Current odds on the Democratic nominee: Biden 25%, Warren 22%, Harris 19%, Sanders 11%, Buttigieg 6%, Yang 4% pic.twitter.com/rVaaaZz3pN — BetData (@betdatapolitics) August 6, 2019 The betting is clear. Former vice president and 2 times White House campaign failure, Jo Biden, is back as favourite in the betting on the Democratic nomination on Betfair. It is hard to see any real change here except some of the long shots pulling out of the race between now and the Iowa caucuses…

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The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T exit the EU by Oct 31st

The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T exit the EU by Oct 31st

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Chart Betfair movements from Betdata.io Do those risking their cash think Boris is bluffing? At 6am this morning it looked as though there was going to be crossover in the Halloween UK exit from the EU betting with more money going on it actually happening than not. Since then the market has been turned back to no – that there won’t be an exit by that date. It would seem, therefore that the Cumming/Johnson line is not being believed by…

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Ruth Davidson’s hard won Scots Tory gains at GE2017 look set to evaporate at an early general election

Ruth Davidson’s hard won Scots Tory gains at GE2017 look set to evaporate at an early general election

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Gloomy numbers for Boris as he considers going to the country One thing that is looking increasingly likely at the next election is that a lot more seats are going to change hands than usual. BJohnson’s party will be looking to make gains in Leave areas to offset likely losses to the resurgent LDs and in Scotland the SNP. This has been reinforced from more data from Lord Ashcroft’s Scottish poll featured in the chart above. There was no conventional…

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