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Month: July 2019

The first post leadership elections’ poll has Swinson’s party the main gainer and LAB below 20%

The first post leadership elections’ poll has Swinson’s party the main gainer and LAB below 20%

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New YouGov carried out after Johnson win has the LDs the big gainerCon 25% (-)Lab 19% (-2)Lib Dem 23% (+3)Brexit 17% (-2)Green 9% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 24, 2019 After all the developments in the past couple of days it is good to have some new polling carried out entirely after the announcement of the results in the Lib Dem and Conservative leadership elections. The numbers are above and will be encouraging to Jo Swinson and very discouraging…

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Mandate, what mandate?

Mandate, what mandate?

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Boris’s election as Tory party leader and Prime Minister is the 8th occasion since WW2 when a new PM has been chosen in between general elections. On 5 of the previous 7 occasions, it was the Tories changing leader (Churchill to Eden, Eden to Macmillan, Macmillan to Douglas-Home, Thatcher to Major and Cameron to May). Only Macmillan and Major went on to win majorities at the subsequent election. On the 2 occasions when Labour made a similar change (Wilson to…

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Prime Minister May : Her electoral record

Prime Minister May : Her electoral record

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When Theresa May became Prime Minister she spoke about wanting to make the JAM’s (Just About Managing) feel confident about voting Conservative. As she departs as Prime Minister, let’s see if the electorate have taken that message to heart. Local Government By-Elections: July 2016 – July 2019 During the last three years there have been close to four hundred local by-elections up and down the country, each of those by-elections sees thousands of people walk into polling stations and cast…

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The year of three Prime Ministers

The year of three Prime Ministers

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  The challenges facing the new man Beleaguered prospective Prime Minister Boris Johnson is not having a good start to the week.  Take his Monday. Sir Alan Duncan resigned as Foreign Office minister, making it clear that he would vote against Boris Johnson in a vote of no confidence if Britain was heading for no deal (indeed, he sought the opportunity for the House of Commons to express its lack of confidence in Boris Johnson before he became Prime Minister). …

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Get ready for Boris’s big day to see CON resignations and the LDs perhaps getting another MP

Get ready for Boris’s big day to see CON resignations and the LDs perhaps getting another MP

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This is the day that many of those elected at CON MPs have been planning for – making a gesture they hope will undermine in some way their new leader who engineered his campaign to minimise the level of scrutiny he came under. Quite how many and what they do we don’t know but the trigger will be he announcement of the leadership election result with the expected big victory for the man some Tories hope will help them beat…

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And so to next week’s Brecon & Radnorshire by-election where new leaders Swinson and Johnson will face their first electoral tests

And so to next week’s Brecon & Radnorshire by-election where new leaders Swinson and Johnson will face their first electoral tests

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Number Cruncher Politics Brecon Poll Can PM BoJo win back CON to BREX defectors? One of the extraordinary features of UK politics at the moment is just how much is going on. Not only will this week see the outcomes of two party leader elections but there’ll be a new PM and in just over a week’s time there’ll be the first CON defence in a Westminster by-election since 2016. Inevitably this battle,in Brecon and Radnorshire will be portrayed as…

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Jo Swinson wins the LD leadership contest

Jo Swinson wins the LD leadership contest

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She takes over with the party on the up It has just been announced that 39 year old Jo Swinson has won the Lib Dem leadership race with 62% of the vote against her former ministerial colleague in the coalition, Ed Davey. She’s the first woman to lead the party and was first elected as an MP at GE2005. She lost her seat, East Dunbartonshire, at GE2015 only to win it back two years later. Her leadership starts at a…

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