The result for the Chris Davies by election vote is announced. More on @ITVWales later pic.twitter.com/PC24Ex9XqM

— Timbo (@Channel405TV) June 21, 2019

Expect it to take place on July 25 or August 1st

So the the B&R recall petition has succeeded though the number signing, 19% was somewhat below the 27% that we saw in Peterborough.

This mean a by-election which is likely to happen at the end of July or in early August – just after the new CON leader takes over.

This is a seat with a long Liberal and LD tradition and Cable’s party will be eager to win it back. It went Tory at GE2015.

The LDs have put a lot of work into gaining support for the petition and, no doubt, Farage’s Brexit party will be looking closely at the seat which voted broadly in line with the UK as a whole in the referendum.

A BXP – LD head to head could be very interesting though I would expect the latter’s ground game to be the more effective.

This is the third time the recall process, introduced during the coalition, has been used. Two have resulted in the incumbent losing his/her seat while the third failed to reach the 10% threshold.

Update – the first betting markets

pic.twitter.com/2IJgCdIihH

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 21, 2019

The petition process was triggered after the the sitting CON MP was convicted of expense fraud.

Mike Smithson

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