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Month: May 2019

The top pollster from the 2014 Euros now has LAB in third place six points behind the LDs

The top pollster from the 2014 Euros now has LAB in third place six points behind the LDs

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“Bollocks to Brexit” not harming the LDs Throughout the Euros campaign one pollster has been producing very different numbers from just about everybody else. That is YouGov which in its survey for the Times this morning finds that the Brexit party is on 37% with the Lib Dems on 19 and labour six points behind that on 13. Almost all the other firms have LAB maintaining a second place position and lower numbers for TBP. It is highly likely we…

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The bets continue to pile on BoJo for next CON leader and PM

The bets continue to pile on BoJo for next CON leader and PM

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Although the timing of Theresa May’s departure as prime minister and CON leader has yet to be confirmed there’s little doubt that we are very close to a party leadership election which will be unique. For the first time party members will be deciding on who should be the next Prime Minister. It should be recalled that previous CON leadership contests which have gone to the membership have been whilst the party…

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Food for thought for would-be defectors to the Brexit Party

Food for thought for would-be defectors to the Brexit Party

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Mike Greene, the Brexit Party candidate for the Peterborough by-election, reportedly met Nigel Farage for the first time the night before he was unveiled as the new party’s representative. You have to hope that he does better due diligence on the companies he invests in. For Nigel Farage is not the easiest man to work for.He has a very long-established habit of falling out with those around him. His history of leading UKIP was one of nonstop rows with senior…

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There could be hope for CHUK yet because of being top of the ballot

There could be hope for CHUK yet because of being top of the ballot

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Never ignore the alphabetical bonus of being top Above is a photograph of my ballot paper in Eastern region for Thursday’s election and looking at it there are some issues that might help or hinder the various parties. I was with some old election hands in the pub at the weekend and we were discussing how ballot form order and and placing can actually have an impact on the final result. At the locals earlier in the month where I…

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Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

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2014 Euros polling – Wikipedia The others overstated UKIP lead by upto 7% With polls coming thick and fast at the moment the one big trend is that YouGov has been showing markedly better numbers for TBP and the LDs than just about all the others. At times like this it is useful to look at the record and what happened last time. The table above shows how well YouGov did in 2014 compared with the other firms and overstated…

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Putting Thursday into context – A look back at previous UK Euro elections

Putting Thursday into context – A look back at previous UK Euro elections

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From Sunil Prasannan Well, just a few months ago, it seemed certain that, with a scheduled 29th March 2019 date for Brexit, the UK was done with EU elections for good. But, it looks like that we are in the EU for at least a few months more, so here we are! On the other hand, we are a political betting site, so what’s wrong with a full-blown nation-wide poll in 2019? The recent Local Elections (given that many cities and…

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Labour’s last-ditch bid to stop its Remain backing voters switching to the LDs and the Greens

Labour’s last-ditch bid to stop its Remain backing voters switching to the LDs and the Greens

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In Thursday's European elections it's Labour or the hard right. Don't let fear win here. pic.twitter.com/lBafANnlft — The Labour Party (@UKLabour) May 19, 2019 Maybe the problem’s that its seen a pro-Brexit party Over the weekend, there has been a flurry of apparently panicky messages coming out of the Labour Party to try to stop the seepage of support to the unequivocally pro-remain parties of the Lib Dems and the Greens. The above Tweet is the latest example. This is…

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The big post Euro election question is whether the Westminster polls will revert to normal?

The big post Euro election question is whether the Westminster polls will revert to normal?

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New .@YouGov – 17th May sees the CON+LAB aggregate drop below 50% CON 24% =1Lab : 24% -1BRX : 18%=LDem : 18% +2Grn : 6% -1UKIP : 2% =CHUK : 2% = — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2019 Above is the latest YouGov polling with the most extraordinary Westminster voting figures that I can recall in recent times. For four parties to be within six points of each other is extraordinary and for the CON+LAB aggregate not to exceed…

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