Harry Hayfield’s March 2019 Local By-Election Summary
Labour 6,624 votes (32% unchanged on last time) winning 6 seats (unchanged on last time)
Conservatives 5,024 votes (24% -1% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time)
Liberal Democrats 3,626 votes (17% +4% on last time) winning 2 seats (unchanged on last time)
Green Party 1,641 votes (8% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time)
Independents 1,154 votes (6% -3% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time)
Local Independents 875 votes (4% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 on last time)
Scottish National Party 865 votes (4% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 490 votes (2% -5% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Other Parties 508 votes (2% +2% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Labour lead of 1,600 votes (8%) on a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con

GAINS
Green Party GAIN Haddenham and Stone on Aylesbury Vale from Conservative
Labour GAIN Coxford on Southampton from Independent
Independent GAIN Holditch and Chesterton on Newcastle-under-Lyme from Labour
Conservatives GAIN Aveley and Uplands on Thurrock from Thurrock Independents

 

Since the referendum  there have been 739 local by-elections across the United Kingdom and I wondered what the REMAIN / LEAVE split was when those wards last voted and now the split is now, therefore using the excellent exit poll data produced by Lord Ashcroft after the referendum I have come up with the following estimate.

In those 739 wards, the vote at the time of the referendum was LEAVE 926,249 (50.16%) REMAIN 920,489 (49.84%). Assuming, and this is the leap of faith that I must beg people to endure, that the splits in voting have remained unchanged since the referendum, those 739 wards now split REMAIN 655,448 (54.49%) LEAVE 547,449 (45.51%) suggesting at least a 4% swing to REMAIN since the referendum (which if applied nationally would see REMAIN poll 52% and LEAVE poll 48%).

Another way of looking at the changes is to see which party is doing best in terms of seat changes in councils that voted LEAVE or REMAIN and there the answer is very clear cut indeed.

REMAIN councils change: Con -10, Lab -7, Lib Dem +12, Ind +2, Local Ind +1, Plaid +2
LEAVE councils change: Con -23, Lab -13, Lib Dem +42, UKIP -22, Green +7, Ind -3, Local Ind +4, Plaid +2

 

Harry Hayfield