A possible Westminster by-election opportunity for the LDs – Brecon where the MP has just pleaded guilty to fraud
The last two elections in Brecon & Radnor where the MP has just pleaded guilty to parliamentary expenses fraud. This was a seat held by the LDs from 1997 to 2015 pic.twitter.com/dwFTWMEDLh
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2019
It was held by the LDs from GE1997 to GE2015
This morning the MP for Brecon and Radnor, Christopher Davies, pleaded guilty to parliamentary expenses fraud. He awaits sentence. If he receives a custodial sentence of a year or more than he automatically will forfeit his seat in House of Commons.
But if the sentence is any less than a year the new recall procedure, currently in operation in Peterborough, could comes into play and he would have to go if 10% or more of the electorate signed the recall petition.
This is a seat that the Lib Dems first won in 1997 and lost at the 2015 general election when they took a battering nationally at the end of the coalition.
In areas where the Lib Dems have been traditionally strong they are usually well placed to fight by-elections and particularly so in the supercharged political atmosphere that we now have with Brexit. That’s not going to go away whatever happens in the next couple of months.
Everything now is dependent on the sentence that Davis is given. At the referendum in June 2016 Brecon and Radnor voted 52% to 48% to leave almost exactly in line with the national average.
By land area the constituency is the largest in England and Wales.