There could still be value in betting that the UK will leave on March 29th
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
There are three big reasons why there might still be value in betting, currently 11%, on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th as laid down in the article 50 process.
The first is Theresa May herself. She has been utterly determined and rigid over the past months and is still trying to get her deal through. There is clearly a growing realisation that if this does not happen on the due date that increases the chances of Brexit not happening at all. I’ve said before half a loaf is better than none if you are a determined Brexiteer.
The second reason is that the departure date is enshrined in British law and it requires legislation to change that. Now parliament can act extremely quickly in emergency circumstances but that generally requires a level of consensus in both Houses of Parliament. That doesn’t exist over brexit.
The third reason is that any extension of the article 50 process requires the unanimous agreement of the 27 remaining members of the EU and efforts are being made by hardliners to lobby and persuade one or two EU governments not to ratify. It only requires one of them to veto it and that’s it.
My guess is that the betting price on this will be subject to a fair amount of turbulence in the next few days and that’s always provide opportunities for punters.
I’m looking for something a bit below the current 11%.