Punters make it a 26% chance that Brexit won’t happen before 2022 – if at all
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
Doubts rise following the failure to agree a deal
With MPs continuing with the voting on the amendments to the article 50 motion the chart above features a Betfair betting exchange market that I have not put on the site before. This is when will be the actual date of the UK’s exit. If you do not believe it is going to happen then you bet on the not before 2022 option which is now at 26% just under the highest it has ever been .
The favourite, as can be seen, is quarter two of this year running from April to June and that is put it just a 32% chance.
As has been discussed at length the big problem with delaying Article 50 for long is the requirement to hold elections to the European Parliament at the end of May. I’m aware of some parties which have already put in place selection processes to ensure that if, at the last minute, these elections do take place then they do have candidates lined up.
One of the motions being voted on this evening is on a referendum and here Labour has ordered its him MPs to abstain. I’m not so sure this is a good idea because of the reported growing anger amongst some activists at Corbyn’s equivocal stance. This will be remembered.