OrdnanceSurvey One thing that we learnt from the launch of the SDP in 1981 is that a new party has to achieve and demonstrate electoral success quickly. Although the Independent group has made great efforts not to be a political party it will achieve success faster if it can show in real elections that both LAB and CON voters and others are more inclined to it than the parties led by Mr Corbyn and Mrs, May. Back in 1981 I…
The shifting sands of politics shift again. This must have not been an easy decision either. But it says a lot that some of the (ex) Tory MPs I respect the most have now left. https://t.co/xJmW5pq6NF — Layla Moran (@LaylaMoran) February 20, 2019 That’s four times as many who switched to the SDP As expected The Independent Group is dominating the headlines with an announcement a few minutes ago that three women Tory MPs have decided to switch. None of…
I am disappointed that these MPs have felt unable to continue to work together for the Labour policies that inspired millions at the last election and saw us increase our vote by the largest share since 1945. — Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) February 18, 2019 Labour won people over on a programme for the many not the few – redistributing wealth and power, taking vital resources into public ownership, investing in every region and nation, and tackling climate change. — Jeremy…
But how seriously should we view his campaign? I must admit that I cannot see either 76 year old Joe Biden or 77 Bernie winning the nomination in eighteen months time. The former has yet to decide while Bernie, who ran Hillary close at WH2016, announced today that he’s going for it. He joins an increasingly crowded field of aspiring nominees and the race will be so unlike last time when it was really just down to two. What he…
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Betting that it won’t happen this yet might now be value We all remember the dramatic Commons no confidence motion last month that TMay won but only with the help of the DUP. Without their 10 votes her government would have gone down and we would now be coming to the end of a general election campaign. At the time Mr. Corbyn warned that they make other attempts. Well since the departure…
The Independent Group is a vehicle designed for flexibility In March 1981 I was working at BBC News on the day of the famous Limehouse declaration which saw the launch of the SDP, the last big break away from the Labour Party. This was a massive development which until yesterday shaped our views of what a breakaway should look like. What Chuka and the other six MPs did yesterday was so different to 1981 because they weren’t creating a new…
Labour sources think crunch point for several other Labour MPs considering resigning the whip will be whether or not Corbyn accepts Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson amendment on Feb 27 calling for public vote on May’s deal, modelled on Good Friday Agreement referendum — Ross Kempsell (@rosskempsell) February 18, 2019 And could the moves against CON remainers be another recruiter? The first stage of deselection is complete in Totnes as @sarahwollaston's constituents fight back over her Brexit betrayal. @TotnesCA Thanks…
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange On what is quite a momentous day in British politics it is quite hard to single out a specific market that has seen change. The one I’ve chosen is the next general election where punters who only last month rated LAB as a 50-50 chance to win most seats now put it at 41%. A lot depends on reaction to the move and whether the development gets traction in the media. For…