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Month: February 2019

A shock poll from Opinium sees the Tories move to a 7% lead

A shock poll from Opinium sees the Tories move to a 7% lead

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CON now 7% ahead of LAB with Opinium for the ObserverLAB 34 (-6) CON 41 (+4)LD 8 (+1) UKIP 7 (-) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2019 LAB/Corbyn appear to be paying the price for Brexit ambiguity. Tonight's Opinium poll with a CON 7% lead finds that for the first time in since GE2017 less than half of referendum remain voters (49%) would opt for LAB. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2019 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer to the Article 50 deadline

Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer to the Article 50 deadline

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Betdata.io But it really could be just about anyone David Herdson’s header this morning about the LAB leadership is a reminder that we haven’t looked at the TMay successor betting for some time. Given that a 2019 Conservative leadership contest is much more likely than a LAB one then we should really keep an eye on it. The chart shows the extraordinary rise in early January of Michael Gove who has now established himself with a solid lead, in the…

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Labour’s Next Leader: Dawn Butler at 100/1?

Labour’s Next Leader: Dawn Butler at 100/1?

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We need to learn the lessons of Corbyn’s wins Identifying Labour’s future leaders used to be a relatively easy job, certainly when compared against the Tories. Gaitskell, Wilson, Callaghan, Smith and Brown were all clearly identifiable as strong contenders five years or more before they took on the job. Blair, at that same distance, could have been seen (rightly, as it turned out), as a future potential leader but not the next one. Kinnock and Ed Miliband were a little…

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January 2019 Local By-Elections

January 2019 Local By-Elections

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Bexhill West on East Sussex (January 10th 2019) Independent 1,761 votes (52% +2% on last time) Conservative 1,071 votes (32% -1% on last time) Liberal Democrat 261 votes (8% +2% on last time) Labour 111 votes (3% -4% on last time) Green Party 107 votes (3% no candidate last time) UKIP 81 votes (2% -2% on last time) Independent HOLD with a majority of 690 (20%) on a swing of 1.5% from Con to Ind St. Mark’s on Rother (January…

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Beto O’Rourke says he can’t decide whether to run for the Presidency or become a teacher

Beto O’Rourke says he can’t decide whether to run for the Presidency or become a teacher

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The one-time Democratic nominee favourite still pondering WH2020 Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman from El Paso in Texas, has not really been heard from since pushing Ted Cruz very close in the Senate race last November in a race that received huge amount of media attention. His campaigning and fundraising ability to mobilise a very large volunteer force and raise a huge amount of cash all led to speculation that he might be the one who would take on Trump…

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