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Month: January 2019

After a dramatic day in the Commons punters on Betfair make it a 64% chance that the UK will NOT leave EU by March 29th

After a dramatic day in the Commons punters on Betfair make it a 64% chance that the UK will NOT leave EU by March 29th

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Betdata.io How Parliament Voted: Amendment 7 (Yvette Cooper Amendment) pic.twitter.com/QRk3Ok02bM — Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) January 8, 2019 The Commons defeat for the government with the almost unprecedented cross-party nature of the vote has seen punters being even less convinced that the UK will leave the EU as planned on March 29th. The election Maps Tweet above shows the party breakdown which looks set to be a good indicator for future votes. Quite where this goes now is hard to…

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Trying to work out what is Britain’s European Strategy

Trying to work out what is Britain’s European Strategy

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Other than, arguably, joining the US in the second Iraq war in 2003, the worst post-war strategic mistake made by any British government was the decision not to join what became the EU in 1958 at the start. Had it done so it would have played a leading role and would have helped shape it into an organisation with rules, aims and a culture with which it could have been much more comfortable. Rather than being seen as a foreign institution,…

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In Jan 2017 Trump had net positive approval ratings in 38 US states – that’s now down to 21

In Jan 2017 Trump had net positive approval ratings in 38 US states – that’s now down to 21

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US Map showing Trump approval ratings Jan 2017 US Map showing Trump approval ratings Dec 2018 It is a sign of just how long PB has been around that next year’s White House Race will be the 5th that we’ve covered on the site since its foundation in March 2004. These are massive betting events something that is helped by the build-up of primaries towards the nominations of then of course the battle itself. With just under two years to…

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Coming up at 2100 GMT on Channel 4 – Brexit the movie

Coming up at 2100 GMT on Channel 4 – Brexit the movie

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-YM8FnWZAU#action=share PBers in the UK, no doubt, will be glued to their TVs Join the discussion while it happens here. I’ve little doubt it will cause controversy and maybe shape perceptions of what happened. It, of course, comes at the most critical time for the Government as it desperately tries to secure the agreement of the Commons on the Brexit deal. The writer, James Graham, made a big name for himself a few years back with his National Theatre play…

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How the EU has bungled Brexit

How the EU has bungled Brexit

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As Britain is going through the final stages of a psychiatric breakdown over Brexit, not much attention is being given to our surroundings. Time to take some slow shallow breaths and look around. How does the world look like from the EU? The EU looks pretty ropey just now. At every level it is enervated. Its Commission is serving out its final months, a lame duck administration. The European Parliament is divided and set to get more so. The national governments are just as weak. Germany…

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Even if Labour secures an early election it is hard to see how the party wins It

Even if Labour secures an early election it is hard to see how the party wins It

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Corbyn needs CON converts which isn’t happening The main objective of Labour, we are told, during this period of extreme uncertainty over Brexit is to secure an early General Election. To do that it will need to win enough backing for a confidence motion that defeats the government that is not rescinded within two weeks. The MP totals for each party make that very difficult except if some means can be created for the DUP’s 10 MPs to back Labour…

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No Leader of the Opposition has rated even nearly as badly as Corbyn and become Prime Minister. An analysis into the satisfaction ratings of leaders of the opposition

No Leader of the Opposition has rated even nearly as badly as Corbyn and become Prime Minister. An analysis into the satisfaction ratings of leaders of the opposition

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In the final piece of three, Corporeal looks at the satisfaction ratings of Leaders of the Opposition The Leader of Her Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition is a position of great responsibility and impotence. It is traditionally the delicate art of attention grabbing, agenda setting, holding the government to account, and providing an inspiring alternative vision for government on the major issues of the day. Or if all that fails (unkind commentators might suggest that not all the holders of the…

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Theresa May is more popular through the first thirty months of her tenure than Thatcher and Cameron. An analysis into Prime Ministerial satisfaction ratings

Theresa May is more popular through the first thirty months of her tenure than Thatcher and Cameron. An analysis into Prime Ministerial satisfaction ratings

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In part two of three, Corporeal looks at Prime Ministerial satisfaction ratings Prime Ministers are, of course, towering figures in public life. Pillars of UK society that are respected and loved in equal measure and enter government with the goodwill of the nation behind them. Then with fairly predictable regularity they slip from the hearts of the public and in some cases end up getting burnt in effigy. Current Situation: The most recent result for Theresa May came in mid-December…

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