The nights may be starting to draw in and people’s minds are starting to turn to the thoughts of Christmas presents, but for the electors in the 22 council wards where there were local by-elections in November, the main discussion point was who to vote for in those local by-elections.

 

And for the first time since July, the UKIP decline seemed to benefit everyone with Con, Lab and Lib Dem all advancing and as a result of that the swing from Con to Lab (which has been around 2% – 3% in recent months) has been reversed to record a small swing to Con

 

However since the general election, there has been no real change in the general trend with the Conservatives barely moving and both Labour and the Liberal Democrats benefitting from the UKIP collapse.

 

And part of the reason for this surge in the Lib Dems is thanks to the fact that they, by far and away, have seen the greatest increase in the number of candidates standing suggesting that the collapse in both morale and support that they suffered post the 2010 general election (as demonstrated in the 2015 general election) may be starting to recover.

And as a result, the Liberal Democrats have a forecast result that would put many a smile back on the faces of several people I know who have wondered if the Liberal Democrats would ever reach their long term average of the low 20’s, but that should be tempered by the fact that even in the best polls for the Lib Dems, they seem unable except on rare occasions to break into double figures.

Harry Hayfield