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Month: November 2018

A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of the possible alternatives

A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of the possible alternatives

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Last year my biggest political betting loss was on Theresa May not surviving. Like many others after her disappointing GE2017 outcome I was ready to write off her chances of staying at number 10. Well 18 months on she is still there and I now approach the end of the year with completely the opposite betting position. My money is on the Prime Minister being the Prime Minister and Tory leader at the end of the year. This is a…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. What do the public think of Theresa May’s Brexit deal?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. What do the public think of Theresa May’s Brexit deal?

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After an eventful week in Westminster, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh sit down to discuss public opinion on Theresa May’s Brexit deal and her future asking ‘what happens now?’ You can listen to the episode below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @MattSingh_ Tweet

Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theresa May not to be ousted this year is the best bet

Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theresa May not to be ousted this year is the best bet

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BBC 5 Live ?@JPonpolitics? Sir Graham Brady, 1922 Chairman, on letters – and lies pic.twitter.com/udTFfVr7z4 — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) November 18, 2018 BBC @JPonpolitics Sir Graham Brady I/v I don’t support a no confidence vote at this time, says Sir Graham pic.twitter.com/uE74yQT1Lm — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) November 18, 2018 If in a confidence vote a significant minority of Tory MPs vote for May to resign, the ERG will demand her resignation anyway. Look guys, if we were entitled…

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Betting on just how many candidates are on the first ballot paper of the next Tory leadership election

Betting on just how many candidates are on the first ballot paper of the next Tory leadership election

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A mixture of ambition, ego, a low nomination threshold, and a very democratic voting system allows a lot of Tories to stand for leader. Since the current Tory leadership rules were first used in 2001 the highest number of candidates to be on the first ballot paper is five, in 2001 and 2016, so I can see why people may wish to back the 8/15 on there being fewer 7 candidates, however I think the value is betting on there…

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The DUP would be taking a big gamble defying Northern Ireland’s farmers on Brexit

The DUP would be taking a big gamble defying Northern Ireland’s farmers on Brexit

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Problems building on the DUP's home patch over its approach to TMay's Brexit deal https://t.co/qFJd5AhNnA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2018 The assumption that the DUP will automatically oppose TMay’s Brexit deal might not be the case as pressure is building up amongst the Province’s farmers many of whom support the party. The Observer is reporting that the powerful Northern Ireland Farmer’s Union has told Arlene Foster’s party that its 10 Westminster MPs should vote for the deal. The…

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How referendums can add to the democratic process

How referendums can add to the democratic process

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Principles for calling referendums This thread header is a response to Mr Meeks’ thread of 6 November, in which he wrote, “we can at least set out some principles for calling referendums.”  It does not ask whether referendums are desirable (though I believe they are). Instead, I look at how the UK political system should accommodate more direct democracy in the future. International experience An excellent study by UCL in 2017 noted 550 nationwide referendums in 43 stable democracies between…

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So the Deal’s going down. Then what?

So the Deal’s going down. Then what?

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    May’s numbers don’t add up for now. Is the threat of No Deal enough to change minds? You have to salute her indefatigability. Despite the Prime Minister being just about the only MP prepared to champion the government’s Brexit Deal, despite the loss of another two cabinet ministers, plus various other more junior ones, despite the letters of No Confidence openly going in to the Chairman of the 1922, despite the three hours of parliamentary pummelling she took…

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At one point this morning punters made it a 55% chance that TMay would be out this year

At one point this morning punters made it a 55% chance that TMay would be out this year

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That’s now dropped sharply When you get dramatic political days like today it is interesting for gamblers to look back and see how betting prices have moved as events have unfolded.  The chart above shows the last 24 hours on the “which year will Mrs May leave” betting market on Betfair. The odds are shown as percentages. As can be seen this morning from about 0900 the money started piling on Mrs May going before the end of the year…

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