Betfair punters now put the chances of a 2019 Brexit referendum at 40%
Inevitably much of the current UK political betting activity has been focused on Brexit and particularly whether or not we are going to see a second referendum before the end of next year. As can be seen sentiment has been changing and although the “won’t happen” option is still favourite it is getting tighter.
It is the “what happens if, as appears likely, the December 11th Commons voting goes against the government” question that’s driving it. Maybe we could get a situation where a second referendum is the only political option open to get away from the current deadlock.
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One thing that’s coming from Theresa May is the determination to avoid a No Deal Brexit and if she is still around early in the New Year after struggling with the Commons then maybe you could see even her backing the idea.
After all she’s changed her mind on similar big matters before. Remember her strong opposition to an early general election on weeks before she called GE2017. Labour, as we all know, have been very divided trying to maintain an equivocal stance that is all things to all men and women.