Punters rate TMay’s chances of getting the Brexit deal agreed by MPs this years at 14%
This represents something of a recovery!
Unlike one or two of her predecessors I am not aware that Theresa May follows political betting and the way the odds are changing. If she had have done she would have noticed about 6pm this evening the chances of her getting the brexit vote agreed before the end of the year was down to 3.3%.
Since then has been something of a recovery and now on Betfair it’s trading about 14%.
But we are really waiting for some polls. Some of the TV coverage talking to members of the public finds a more sympathy for the prime minister’s position than you get from MPs. Is that reflective of opinion?
Anecdote is no substitute for proper polling where a structured approach to assessing opinion has been handled with a sample that represents the population as a whole.