The bookies open the Commons deal betting making rejection the odds on-favourite
But read the terms of the market
After yesterday’s historic agreement attention now turns to whether the House of Commons is going to accept what Mrs May has agreed with the EU.
Several bookies have markets up at all of them with opening odds that the deal will be rejected. Betway has it at 1/3 that this will be the outcome and also that Theresa May is just 10/11 to be replaced during 2019.
Betfair has launched what I think is a more interesting exchange market on whether the deal will get through the Commons this year. Note that YES will be a winner even if a first vote is a rejection. The critical element is it going through before the end of the year.
In all politics markets it is always wise to read the precise definition for the avoidance of doubt. These are the Betfair market rules:
Will the House of Commons vote through a government motion to approve a EU withdrawal agreement and accompanying political declaration before the end of 2018?
For the purpose of this market any vote by the House of Lords does not count. If the House of Commons vote through the government motion on a EU withdrawal agreement then Yes will be settled as a winner.
If a first vote on the government motion was defeated the market will still remain active as any subsequent votes on a government motion to approve a EU withdrawal agreement and accompanying political declaration will count. The market will only be settled if/when a motion is voted through by the House of Commons or 2018 comes to an end.
Currently the Betfair market has it has a 74% chance that the proposition to accept will be rejected this year.
My view is that ultimately the deal will be accepted but I’m less certain that that is going to happen in the remaining weeks of 2018. The current 25% price is probably just about a value bet and I might have a wager.
The excellent historical betting price site Betdata.io has just included this in the markets it is covering and no doubt I will be referring to that a lot in the coming days and weeks.