At one point this morning punters made it a 55% chance that TMay would be out this year
That’s now dropped sharply
When you get dramatic political days like today it is interesting for gamblers to look back and see how betting prices have moved as events have unfolded. The chart above shows the last 24 hours on the “which year will Mrs May leave” betting market on Betfair. The odds are shown as percentages.
As can be seen this morning from about 0900 the money started piling on Mrs May going before the end of the year with the market reaching a peak of just over 55%. It is dropped down a fair bit and currently as I write an exit this year is rated as a 36% chance.
As I reported on a thread header earlier I’m backing Mrs My to survive 2018 though I expect the odds to move quite sharply should the required 48 signatures for a confidence vote before coming.
My guess is that if there is a ballot then Theresa May will survive simply because her ousting would trigger an immediate leadership contest with all the uncertainties that that entails.
What has not happened is a unifying figure in emerging with in the party. When the Conservatives leader confidence procedure was used in 2003 against Iain Duncan Smith there was broad consensus within the party that Michael Howard should be a successor.
We simply don’t have a similar situation at the moment and that is probably Theresa May’s greatest defence. I have to say that I think she has performed against adversity remarkably well in the circumstances and at least her voice is holding up.