US midterms early voting is reaching presidential election levels in some states
But who’s benefiting?
All the signs are that turnout is going to reach almost presidential election levels in the US midterm elections that take place on Tuesday November 6th.
In many states it is possible to vote early and quite a number started the process on Tuesday with two weeks to go. Almost across the board the numbers who are availing themselves of this facility are at levels nearing, or in some cases topping. the recorded numbers casting their ballots at this point before WH2016.
This is striking because generally midterm voter turnout is substantially lower than at presidential elections. This fits in with the current polling that has enthusiasm amongst voters very high. The incumbent of the White House is a big vote driver for both sides.
Early indications are that the Republicans have edge on votes cast so far. This is based on breakdowns, available in some states, on breakdowns of early voter information that includes the party that individual register for. Whether this is significant or not is hard to say. We do know that those most inclined to vote early by post in UK elections tend to be the elderly who, of course, are much more inclined to the Tories.
The betting has seen a slight move to he Republicans for both the House and Senate majority markets. The Dems are still 65% favourite for the House.