Why I’m betting that that there is a greater than 35% chance that Brexit won’t happen next March 29th as planned
I think people are massively underestimating the impact of no deal with voters on a) the Tory brand b) the credibility of Brexit.
Don’t underestimate the potential for many voters to shrug and say ‘it can’t be done so let’s not’. Not everyone of course but enough to shift votes.
— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) October 14, 2018
If no deal becomes more likely the less chance of the date being met
Another week starts with growing uncertainty over whether a Brexit deal will be possible. Things have got so much more complicated and seeing a way through the fog is going to be massively challenging for the PM and her close advisors.
Keiran Pedley’s Tweet above raises a feature of No Deal that I haven’t seen discussed much. That people might just say of this is all too difficult so let’s let’s scrap Brexit. That could start to take hold within parts of the electorate and the mood could change quite sharply.
Whatever there are a huge number of obstacles to be surmounted before the official leaving day of March 29th next year and time is almost exhausted. As it gets closer to the deadline and the stalemate continues you can see pressure building up for at least an Article 50 delay beyond next March. The upcoming European court case on whether the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 could add to the delay possibility.
Those politicians who predicted that all this was going to be so so easy have really misread what was involved and no doubt will be reminded of it.
This all leaves the Brexit betting where the Betfair exchange price on the March 29th deadline for exit not being met is now 35%. That offers value because it covers so many scenarios.