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Month: August 2018

A bet that seems like a guaranteed 14% return in just over 4 months

A bet that seems like a guaranteed 14% return in just over 4 months

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Video: Footage of Jeremy Corbyn, in yellow, taking on his critics in the Parliamentary Labour Party. NSFW As long as Labour members see Corbyn as the Messiah & not a very naughty boy there won’t be a Labour leadership contest. Paddy Power’s market on whether there’ll be a Labour leadership contest in 2018 seems like an absolute slam dunk for backers of the 1/7 for the following reasons. Whilst Corbyn appears to have better relationships with terrorists and anti Semites…

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Last rights? Are UKIP set to revive?

Last rights? Are UKIP set to revive?

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It is a regular feature of horror films that, just when you think it has been destroyed, the monster lurches back into life one last time to terrorise the valiant hero.  Right now the corpse of UKIP is lying slouched in the corner but with its poll ratings a quantum level higher than they were two months ago its body is twitching as if an electrical stimulus is being pumped through it.  Can it return from the dead? Following the…

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Labour’s antisemitism problem will always bedevil Corbyn as long as Palestine remains a cause célèbre

Labour’s antisemitism problem will always bedevil Corbyn as long as Palestine remains a cause célèbre

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At the heart of modern anti-Zionism is the traditional envy of Jewish success If Jeremy Corbyn had been politically active seventy years ago, there’s no doubt that he would have been a vocal champion of Zionism. Few things animate him like support for a people he regards as oppressed, who are fighting against a state like Britain or the US. If that struggle involves terrorism, no big deal for him. The creation of a Jewish Israel out of Britain’s League…

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The first forecast for the midterms gives the Democrats a 75% chance of winning back the House

The first forecast for the midterms gives the Democrats a 75% chance of winning back the House

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The US election forecasting site 538 issues its first projection for the House Race in this year's midterms.https://t.co/7Fgl3lPy64 pic.twitter.com/ZFoQe2eReF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2018 On Betfair punters make it a 61% punt In spite of all that is going on in UK politics at the betting markets here continue to make the US midterms in November the most popular betting event. This is not surprising. There’s a high UK interest in US and the White House races can…

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Scotland and the electoral system: Why winning the next GE is huge ask of LAB

Scotland and the electoral system: Why winning the next GE is huge ask of LAB

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The system bias is now strongly pro-CON We all recall that at the 2005 general election Tony Blair’s Labour won the GB vote by a margin of just 3% but that was enough to give them an overall majority of 64. There was little doubt that the electoral system then favoured the red team. Things have changed dramatically with the collapse of the LDs and the post-IndyRef rise of the SNP. Even without the proposed new boundaries the electoral system…

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Outsiders have rarely become PM – but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done

Outsiders have rarely become PM – but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done

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By Photo: Sergeant Tom Robinson Besides, the ‘rules’ might be changing TSE wrote last week that “on all seven occasions since World War II when parties have changed PM mid-term, the new PM has always been an incumbent of a great office of state”. He might have gone further. Other than in war-time, with two exceptions, every prime minister between Palmerston and May who succeeded a member of their own party or coalition, had either been Chancellor or Foreign Secretary…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Silly season. What conspiracy theories do Brits believe? Plus Boris makes tea and “wreath-gate”

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Silly season. What conspiracy theories do Brits believe? Plus Boris makes tea and “wreath-gate”

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters show Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi take a different approach to the podcast and look at public opinion on conspiracy theories using some exclusive polling from Opinium. How many Brits think the earth is flat? Is Elvis alive? Were the mood landings faked? Is Paul dead? Is Nessie real? Our podcasters find out the answers, plus which conspiracy theory has less than half thinking it is false…you can listen to the conspiracy theory…

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