Up from 8% to 29% in a month

Former Mayor of London and former foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, who quit the cabinet last month over the Chequers deal, has seen a remarkable upsurge in his fortunes in the monthly ConservativeHome survey of preferred next leader survey. He’s now on 29% up from the 8% of a month ago.

These monthly surveys are proving to be hugely volatile but interesting all the same.

Sajid Javid the previous number one dropped two points from 21% to 19% while Jacob Rees-Mogg drops a point to 13%.

This has had very little impact on the next leader betting where punters rate Johnson at just a 9% chance of getting the top job. Javid and Moggsy remain the favourites in the betting.

I still wonder whether Johnson has what it takes to secure one of the top two places in the MP ballot of the names that shall go to the party membership in the postal election. His time as Foreign Secretary really did him no favours and the party will surely been looking for somebody who appears more statesmanlike.

There’s also a lot of back-story about Johnson which, no doubt, would be raised by those hostile to him should he put his name forward as a contender.

Also it is far from certain that there will be early leadership election and the money is still going on Theresa May surviving this year and to the Brexit date of March 29th. Then, I would suggest, politics will look very different and the question will be how long will Mrs May remain.

Ii is true to say that BoJo generally tops the public polls but then that could mostly be down to much higher name recognition.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB

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