If Betfair punters are right the Republicans are set to hold onto the House in the November midterms
This would be a big victory for Trump
While we are all focused on the Tories and Brexit in the UK the biggest political betting market at the moment continues to be the above one on the US midterm elections and, particularly, whether the Republicans can hold on to the House.
The current RCP polling average has the Democrats 6.4% ahead but that’s not thought to be big enough to see change. In many states the congressional district boundaries very much favour the Republicans.
There is a heavy incumbency advantage but in a normal US electoral cycle the first midterms in a new President’s term tend to go against his party. Holding on would be a huge victory for the White House and would mean there’s less possibility of some of Trump’s controversial moves being impeded.
The Senate looks set to remain in the GOP’s hands because of the seats that are up this year. There are 100 members of the Senate and roughly a third come up for elections every two years.