This Bloomberg reports on the referendum, polling and the hedge funds is a must read
How the Betfair Brexit market moved on June 23/24 2016. Data/chart from @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/5c0FjJCKxv
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 25, 2018
I am assuming the ?@TheFCA? and ?@bankofengland? will be reading this impressive expose by ?@business? of what looks like market manipulation on the night the UK chose Brexit – and Sterling first rose and then slumped https://t.co/Fmv1cGdvuC
— Robert Peston (@Peston) June 25, 2018
One thing the article does not cover is that there were strong rumours in the days leading up to the referendum that the postal votes were looking good for leave. This is an area that it is difficult to talk about because any revelation coming from the verification of postal ballots in local authorities round the country is a criminal offence.
Quite what the source was we will never know but there was information about.
Looking back to that momentous night I thought that far too much credence was being put on the YouGov poll which was presented almost in the same manner as a general election exit poll.
What convinced me to bet on leave at 0054 was the Newcastle result which had nothing like the remain margin that it should have done. At the time I thought it odd that this did not have the impact on the betting that I thought it should.