Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year
The big unknown now is the Leave campaign funding investigation
As can be seen from the chart the Brexit “will it happen on time” market has seen a fair bit of turbulence since the start of the year with YES now a 67% chance.
The recent bumps have been cause by the progress of the exit bill through both houses of parliament.
At the moment the one thing that we know about that could cause movement is the Electoral Commission investigation into the leave campaign spending and whether or not what was done was lawful.
We should know the outcome in the next few weeks and there are signs that the Commission could rule that it wasn’t. If that happens then expect it to trigger off huge legal battles by those arguing that this undermines the democratic legitimacy of the referendum. In that situation this market will move.