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Month: May 2018

On the betting markets punters don’t buy the speculation that there’ll be a 2018 election

On the betting markets punters don’t buy the speculation that there’ll be a 2018 election

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Betdata.io A vote this year is rated as just an 11% chance At the weekend we saw reports in the media about the possibility of the huge divide in the Conservative over Brexit being of such a magnitude that an early, 2018, general election was the only way of ending it. I thought the Sunday Times report was over-egged simply because Mrs. May was so scarred by her failure to retain the Tory majority last year that there were no…

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Ken Livingstone, the ex-mayor who keeps talking about Hitler, quits the Labour party

Ken Livingstone, the ex-mayor who keeps talking about Hitler, quits the Labour party

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Ken Livingstone has announced that he is resigning from the Labour Party saying the issues around his suspension for alleged anti-Semitism had become a "distraction" — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) May 21, 2018 Former London mayor Ken Livingstone says he does not accept the allegation that he has brought the Labour Party into disrepute or that he is "in any way guilty of anti-Semitism" — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) May 21, 2018 Labour MP John Mann has told Sky News…

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Of the last 22 published voting intention polls LAB has led in just one

Of the last 22 published voting intention polls LAB has led in just one

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Now increasing CON leads have become the norm The above table from Wikipedia shows the published national voting intention polls over the past three months. What is very striking is how there are almost no surveys showing Corbyn’s party ahead at the moment. That compares with January when LAB led in six and was tied in two. We are coming to a point in a parliament when oppositions need to be recording solid leads if they are to have any…

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Polling boost for TMay as she takes a “best PM” lead amongst young voters for first time since GE2017

Polling boost for TMay as she takes a “best PM” lead amongst young voters for first time since GE2017

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Corbyn could be losing his advantages with the youth vote The narrative that started following the shock general election result last June was that Corbyn and his party had managed tap into the youth vote who were turning out in greater numbers than at recent elections. Much of this can be seen in looking at the age splits to leadership ratings and who would make the best prime minister findings from different pollsters since the election. Certainly up to now…

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Not another one. Oh for God’s sake, honestly I can’t stand this. There’s too much politics going on at the moment.

Not another one. Oh for God’s sake, honestly I can’t stand this. There’s too much politics going on at the moment.

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I wonder what Brenda from Bristol makes of this?https://t.co/Rts76OHAve pic.twitter.com/vAHTmJt15Z — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 20, 2018 Today’s Sunday Times report Conservative MPs are preparing for another snap general election as they fear the Brexit deadlock will become insurmountable for the prime minister. Some have spoken to their local party associations asking to be readopted as prospective parliamentary candidates in readiness for an autumn election. The back-bench MPs acted after meeting Theresa May last week for a private Brexit briefing as…

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A 100/1 tip to be Theresa May’s successor

A 100/1 tip to be Theresa May’s successor

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Matt Hancock living his best life during #PMQs pic.twitter.com/hefCqW8Fua — James Davies (@jamesorharry) May 16, 2018 My twin strategies when it comes to betting on Theresa May’s successor is to lay the favourite(s) and back long odds (cabinet) ministers who appear to have potential. The latter has proven a very successful approach with the likes of Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid who were tipped and backed at odds of 100/1 and 60/1. So the latest addition to the latter list…

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Corbyn’s Opinium net approval ratings trail both Cable and May by 10 points

Corbyn’s Opinium net approval ratings trail both Cable and May by 10 points

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The May Opinium poll for the Observer is just out including what is the only leader approval ratings series from any UK pollster. The latest numbers are in the chart and TMay’s -8% is exactly the same as last month. Corbyn has improved a point to -18% whiule Cable sees his number move from -18% to -8%. Opinium’s best PM ratings follow the trend of other pollsters with 36% saying they would prefer TMay as PM, against 23% for Corbyn….

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The Conservatives must again make the case for private enterprise, profit, choice and competition

The Conservatives must again make the case for private enterprise, profit, choice and competition

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1929 Conservative poster The risk is an unwitting drift into a new left-of-centre consensus Some revolutions are begun by small steps; others are revealed by them. Of itself, Chris Grayling’s announcement this week that the government was bringing the East Coast Mainline back into public ownership, was nothing unusual. It is, after all, the third time in the 20 years of the privatised era that the East Coast franchise has failed. Furthermore, for the government, the return to state-run operations…

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