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Month: March 2018

At last the Pennsylvania Special election is resolved with the Republicans conceding defeat

At last the Pennsylvania Special election is resolved with the Republicans conceding defeat

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Nine days after the Pennsylvania special election the Republicans conced defeat in Congressional District won by Trump with 20% margin AT WH2016https://t.co/1kdsQkmI3u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2018 What had been a 627 vote lead on the night became more than 800 Overnight the GOP contender in last week’s Pennsylvania special Congressional election, Rick Saccone, conceded defeat which means that the sensational victory by the Democrats in a District won by Trump by a 20% margin at the last…

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That Survation 7% LAB lead poll looks very much the outlier – but then so did the firm’s final GE2017 survey

That Survation 7% LAB lead poll looks very much the outlier – but then so did the firm’s final GE2017 survey

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Wikipedia Looking at all the published polls for 2018 that Survation 7% lead survey a couple of weeks back looks and very much out of place. The other best polls for LAB this year were a Survation 3% lead one in January and a similar margin in Ipsos-MORI phone survey with fieldwork starting three days beforehand. In normal circumstances we would just regard the latest Survation as one on its own and concentrate on the latest ICM/Opinium/YouGov which have CON…

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You can’t fault Corbyn’s ambition in going to Trafford to launch Labour local election campaign

You can’t fault Corbyn’s ambition in going to Trafford to launch Labour local election campaign

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LabourList Ladbrokes make it 12/1 that they’ll take the council Expect to hear a lot more than usual about this year’s local elections for the simple fact that the London boroughs are voting and this tends to alert the London based media into realising that elections are actually taking place. The only problem is that they will focus on the London boroughs and perhaps not give the same attention to what’s happening outside. At the local election briefing on Monday…

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The bad news for LAB from Prof John Curtice – Corbyn has NOT solved its turnout problem

The bad news for LAB from Prof John Curtice – Corbyn has NOT solved its turnout problem

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Relying on previous non-voters not a viable winning strategy The conclusion from John Curtice’s new analysis: After the collapse in turnout in the 2001 election (and, indeed, in local elections held at the same time) considerable concern was expressed about the apparent disengagement of voters from the electoral process. A particular source of worry for some was the marked decline in turnout amongst the latest generation of new voters who, it was feared, might now never adopt the habit of…

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To election junkies like me the Cambridge Analytica stuff is fascinating but where is it going to lead?

To election junkies like me the Cambridge Analytica stuff is fascinating but where is it going to lead?

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Isn’t it just election losers seeking to undermine the legitimacy of results? Given the amount of publicity the Cambridge Analytica story has had over the past few days both in the UK and in the US the big question is where is this all going to lead politically? The Westminster SNP leader, Ian Blackford, used both his allocated PMQ questions in the clip shown above. In the US are the revelations going to make it that bit harder for Mr…

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If its Corbyn versus May again next time my money would be on the Tories

If its Corbyn versus May again next time my money would be on the Tories

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Tories now back as odds-on favourites We could be more than four years away from the next general election and it is possible that neither Corbyn or Theresa May will be leading the parties by then. But if the two were to be the main party leaders next time, whenever that is, my money would be on the Conservatives. Firstly it is always the case that we look at elections through the prism of what happened last time rather than…

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UKIP drops to just 1% in latest ICM poll

UKIP drops to just 1% in latest ICM poll

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Tories now 3 points ahead with ICMCON 44+1LAB 41-1LD 8 +1GRN 2 -1UKIP 1 -1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2018 Is it all over now the party’s task is almost complete? Ever since the referendum on June 23rd 2016 life has been pretty difficult for UKIP the party, which undoubtedly played a huge part in shaping this dramatic decision. Since then we’ve all followed the various leadership issues and I chuckled when Fairy liquid produced an advertisement suggesting…

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