Suddenly TMay’s survival chances look a lot stronger
There’s a Betfair market that hasn’t attracted much attention or liquidity on which of May/Corbyn/Cable/Sturgeon will be the first leader out. I think it would have been better to confine it to the PM and LOTO.
What’s been striking is how over the past fortnight Mrs. May, who looked a basket case earlier in the month rated as an 80% chance of being first out, is now at 50%. Meanwhile Corbyn, who was at 2% has now edged up to 18%.
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While Corbyn has had all the problems with his less than convincing responses to the anti-antisemitism charges Mrs. May appears to have found a new sense of purpose following Salisbury.
Quite simply she is looking stronger while Corbyn looks vulnerable. The only caveat here is that the thousands of Corbyn cultists within Labour are going to ensure that their man will remain.
TMay, on the other hand, could be out in a very short period if 48 CON MPs write letters demanding a confidence vote.
The fact is that the PM survived, against all expectations, in the job when things were going terribly and has now entered a more confidence phase. In the current context even if 48 CON letters were sent you could see her surviving the MP ballot.
Meanwhile Corbyn’s relationship with his MPs is almost as bad as it has ever been.
My view is that May is now a greater asset to her party than Corbyn.