https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/949767988772732928

Mrs May has an uncanny ability to go out of her way to step on banana skins

Today’s Sunday Times report that Mrs May will reshuffle her cabinet on Monday and the junior ranks on Tuesday.

Theresa May will move or sack at least six members of her cabinet in a reshuffle tomorrow designed to refresh her top team. An aide said she wanted to “make sure the government reflects the modern and diverse country” we live in.

Boris Johnson has been spared demotion and, along with Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd and David Davis, will stay in his post. But a group of younger women and non-white MPs will be drafted into the ministerial ranks.

Those tipped to move or be sacked include party chairman Patrick McLoughlin; education secretary Justine Greening, said to have annoyed May with her “patronising” tone; Greg Clark, the business secretary; and Andrea Leadsom, leader of the Commons — who are all seen as “dead wood”.

The plan to promote female and ethnic minority MPs into the ministerial ranks is an attempt to banish the Tory image as “pale, male and stale”. The cabinet reshuffle has been mapped out on a whiteboard in May’s private office in No 10; changes to lower ministerial ranks will be announced on Tuesday.

Among those tipped for promotion are Suella Fernandes, leader of the backbench Eurosceptics, whose parents came to Britain from Kenya and Mauritius; Seema Kennedy, May’s parliamentary aide, whose father was Iranian; Nusrat Ghani, who helped review the party’s general election performance; and Rishi Sunak, a star of the 2015 intake. Female ministers such as Margot James, Harriet Baldwin, Claire Perry and Sarah Newton could all move up the ladder…..

…May will appoint a first secretary of state to replace Damian Green, who resigned from the Cabinet Office last month. Jeremy Hunt and Chris Grayling have been linked to the role. If Jeremy Hunt moves, Anne Milton and Dr Phillip Lee have been tipped to be his replacement. Hunt’s wife has told friends her husband is “going to have a good year”.

Sacking a few cabinet ministers and the appearance of promoting people based on them possessing ovaries or being ethnic minorities might cause resentment amongst those who weren’t promoted. Given the precarious parliamentary arithmetic Mrs May faces after she lost David Cameron’s majority, this might not be the best course of action.

By giving Andrea Leadsom more time to be a mother, she might also be giving Andrea Leadsom the time and opportunity to topple Mrs May. I get the feeling Mrs Leadsom’s leadership ambitions remain undimmed.

I also think this reshuffle might also see the end of Jo Johnson, because of the appointment of Toby Young.  The Mail on Sunday reported that Mrs May is disgusted at the tweets by Toby Young.  ‘His tweet ‘joking’ about masturbating over scenes of starving African children in a BBC Comic Relief segment fronted by Simon Cowell may prove the final straw.’

Mrs May might sack Jo Johnson for choosing Toby Young for the role, or Jo Johnson might quit in protest or over the inference that Mrs May has lost confidence in him if Toby Young is forced to quit.

Jo Johnson leaving government might cause problems for Mrs May and her troubled relationship with Boris Johnson, I can’t see the Foreign Secretary being happy if his brother leaves the government.

Mrs May and her government needs friends, she appears to be creating enemies, although the need for this reshuffle can be blamed on Damian Green. Those who lack true faith in Mrs May might be receiving some confirmation about their doubts in the Prime Minister with this reshuffle.

From a betting point of view it might be wise to take advantage of the 200s available on Betfair or if that is no longer available the 150/1 Ladbrokes are offering on Chris Grayling as next Prime Minister. If he effectively becomes Theresa May’s deputy then at those odds it might make for a good trading bet.

TSE