With the Alabama polls showing the Farage-backed Moore 3.8% ahead the betting makes him an 83% chance
What Alabama's Senior Senator thinks of the man Farage is campaigning for in Tuesday crucial election https://t.co/GiUQ9ZuUwP
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2017
The big political event this week is tomorrow’s special election in Alabama to choose the next senator. This is critically important because currently the split in the Senate is 52 Republican to 48 Democrat. If the controversial, Moore who has been accused of having sex with girls as young a 14,loses then that would become 51-49 making it harder for controversial moves to get through.
During the primary Nigel Farage spoke at a meeting in the state on behalf of Moore who is facing a huge campaign from the Democratic Party who sense the possibility of a victory.
Whichever ever way it goes it is being argued that the outcome would be bad for the Republicans. This is from from Dan Balz in the Washington Post
“For Republicans, there likely can be no truly good outcome. If Moore wins, the party will have preserved the seat but will be saddled with a new senator under a cloud of allegations, including assaulting a teenager many years ago as well as a pattern of pursuing teenagers half his age when he was in his 30s. If he wins and is sworn in, he probably will face an ethics investigation that will keep the controversy alive until his fate is resolved and perhaps much longer than that. For the Republicans, it’s a hot mess.
If Moore loses, the GOP would be spared his presence in the Senate. But the result will have inflamed the anti-establishment forces led by former White House chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon, deepening antagonisms that continue to roil the party. A Jones victory also would tarnish the president, who has enthusiastically endorsed Moore and campaigned near the Alabama border Friday night in a display of that support. Additionally, a Jones victory would put the Republican majority at greater risk in 2018…”
Alabama is traditionally a very strong Republican state and it is only because Moore is the candidate that this could be in doubt. All but a couple of the most recent polls have him ahead what are the current polling average gives him a 3.8% lead.
Everything is dependent on turnout and whether the Republicans can get their voters out in an election so near to Christmas for someone so controversial.
The election is currently the most active political market on Betfair with Moore at the moment (0640 GMT) rated as an 83% chance.