A reminder of the great political betting night June 23/24 2016 as punters were slow to realise that Leave was winning
Chart of Betfair Exchange trades from Betdata.io
There was a discussion on the previous thread on the betting prices overnight in June last year when the Brexit referendum results began to come in.
Thanks to Betdata.io which monitors these things on Betfair the above is the final 12 hours of betting. What is striking is just how slow punters were to realise that Remain wasn’t winning.
At 2310 the Remain price reached a 93.5% chance and a lot of money was being punted.
My view of that night is that the on the day YouGov poll published after voting closed was having a big effect and people were treating it like a general election exit poll which, of course, have a very good record.
My first bet on the referendum was on Leave at 0054 on the Friday morning just after the Newcastle result came out.