TMay’s GE17 campaign was the first to see net CON seat losses since the Blair landslide 20 years ago
The extraordinary thing is that she’s still there
One of the consequences of her statement that she’d like to fight the next general election is that people will recall what happened in June when nearly two decades of recovery for the party came to an abrupt end.
As can be seen in the chart at every election after the 1997 Blair drubbing there had been quite a lot of progress in terms of seats. It is no wonder that the reaction of many Tory MPs and members was that GE17 should be the first and last for her as CON leader.
William Hill have 7/2 against her not surviving as leader this year and, no doubt, other markets will emerge.
I wasn’t planing to go to the Tory conference in Manchester at the start of October. Maybe there’s a case for now doing so.
Mike Smithson
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