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Month: May 2017

TMay U-turns on her controversial manifesto social care policy

TMay U-turns on her controversial manifesto social care policy

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Theresa May’s 9 U-turns https://t.co/5rfqideq4d — FT Westminster (@ftwestminster) May 22, 2017 Delete Strong & Stable replace Strong & Swerving With just two weeks and 2 days of campaigning left Mrs. May has u-turned on one of the flagship policies in her manifesto – the plans for social care. This follows a sharp move in some polls although even on present numbers she is sure of a substantial working majority. In all the time I’ve been writing about politics (my…

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Survation phone poll has CON lead down 10 points in a week to 9% now

Survation phone poll has CON lead down 10 points in a week to 9% now

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Tory “squeaky bum time”? Maybe not yet Since TMay launched her CON manifesto last Thursday we have had just three published polls where all or part of the fieldwork took place afterwards – the Sunday Times YouGov, the Mail on Sunday Survation online poll and now, this morning, a Survation phone poll for Good Morning Britain. We’ve seen the same direction in all of them – a narrowing of the Conservative lead. This latest Survation has with changes on last…

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CON drops 9 seats on the spread-betting markets following the first post manifesto polling

CON drops 9 seats on the spread-betting markets following the first post manifesto polling

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CON spreads down 9 on @SportingIndex 383-390 https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 … … … … … … …& Spreadex 384-391 https://t.co/WTy5ixtSxJ … … … … … … — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2017 Spread betting is the form of gambling for those with deep pockets that are ready to take big risks and are attracted by the idea that the more you are right the more you win. Unfortunately the converse is the case. The more you are wrong the more you…

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Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call – maybe not a CON landslide after all

Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call – maybe not a CON landslide after all

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Sun Will TMay get her landslide or could the result be a lot tighter? The launching of the Conservative manifesto on Thursday has changed the whole narrative of this election. From a situation where the only real outcome that appeared possible was a very substantial Conservative majority, certainly more than 100, we now have the first post manifesto polls with the gap closing sharply. It was very bold of the Prime Minister and her team to include items within the…

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UPDATED With postal voting just starting CON lead drops

UPDATED With postal voting just starting CON lead drops

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https://twitter.com/Survation/status/866035811719954433 CON lead down to single figures with YouGov Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2017 The ORB Poll for S Telegraph which was carried out BEFORE CON manifesto launch Con 46Lab 34LD 7UKIP 7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2017 Opinium poll carried out BEFORE CON manifesto launch CON 46% -1LAB 33%+1LD 8% =UKIP 5%=GRN 2%= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2017 Still to come…

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Steve Fisher’s model finds betting markets more pro-CON and anti-LAB than other projections

Steve Fisher’s model finds betting markets more pro-CON and anti-LAB than other projections

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Elections Etc At a polling conference ahead of GE2015 Prof Phil Cowley of Queen Mary University told me that it was wise not to doubt Oxford’s Prof Steve Fisher when it came to election numbers. Alas I didn’t take any notice then! Fisher’s calculations were then pointing to a CON majority well ahead of just about everybody else and, of course, he was vindicated. Earlier this month Steve had another good set of elections with the locals and this time…

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Take Care. The implications of the Conservative policy on social care

Take Care. The implications of the Conservative policy on social care

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Embed from Getty Images General elections aren’t usually about big ideas. They’re usually occasions for the parties to try to come up with visual representations of their opponents that sting, for frenetic arguments about trivial events and for their leaders to pose in unlikely photo-opportunities. Voters are expected to react, not to think. So Conservative supporters have reacted with trepidation to the focus on their plans for long term care. This was not an afterthought but a flagship policy, mentioned…

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