Steve Fisher’s model finds betting markets more pro-CON and anti-LAB than other projections
At a polling conference ahead of GE2015 Prof Phil Cowley of Queen Mary University told me that it was wise not to doubt Oxford’s Prof Steve Fisher when it came to election numbers. Alas I didn’t take any notice then!
Fisher’s calculations were then pointing to a CON majority well ahead of just about everybody else and, of course, he was vindicated.
Earlier this month Steve had another good set of elections with the locals and this time I followed Phil Cowley’s wise words.
Fisher is a key member of the team general election exit poll team which enjoys a good track record. His site, linked to above, is well worth following.
The latest set of projections are in the table above and as can be seen the betting markets are giving the best CON sets numbers and the worst LAB ones. Much of the data for the betting column is coming from the spreads where the big money is wagered.
In the past the spreads ahead of election day have tended to overstate what the Tories eventually achieve. Election day betting is a different matter and I’ll no doubt turn to that on the day.
The spread firms tell me that the most activity at the moment is on LD seats. Sporting Index have them at 15-18 with Spreadex on 14-17. At the moment I can’t see any value either way.
Some of the polls tonight should reflect the impact of the CON manifesto but watch carefully for fieldwork dates. We are looking for those where it was carried out after Thursday.